R:R Break-Even Win Rate Calculator
R:R Break-Even Win Rate Calculator
Calculate the minimum win rate needed to break even at any risk-to-reward ratio, with optional commission, spread and slippage. A 1:2 risk-reward ratio needs a 33.33% win rate to break even before trading costs.
Your risk : reward
Unit: R multiple (reward for every 1R risked). Enter 2 for 1:2. No currency or account size needed.
At 1:2 R:R you need to win at least 33.33% of trades to break even before trading costs.
Below this rate: negative expectancy. At this rate: about break-even. Above it: positive expectancy before costs.
+ Include trading costs
Common mistake: entering per-side commission. Costs here are the full round trip (entry plus exit).
| Result | Before costs | After costs |
|---|---|---|
| R:R | 1:2 | 1:2 |
| Break-even win rate | 33.33% | 35.00% |
| Cost impact | +1.67 percentage points | |
What R:R do I need at my win rate?
Common mistake: entering 0.45 instead of 45. Use percent.
What R:R gives my target break-even rate?
Check: 1:1.50 with 0.00R of cost breaks even at 40.00%.
Break-even curve
Higher R lowers the win rate you need, with diminishing returns. The orange dot is your ratio.
Common R:R break-even rates
| R:R | Break-even win rate | Loss tolerance |
|---|---|---|
| 1:0.5 | 66.67% | 33.33% |
| 1:1 | 50.00% | 50.00% |
| 1:1.5 | 40.00% | 60.00% |
| 1:2 | 33.33% | 66.67% |
| 1:2.5 | 28.57% | 71.43% |
| 1:3 | 25.00% | 75.00% |
| 1:4 | 20.00% | 80.00% |
| 1:5 | 16.67% | 83.33% |
| 1:10 | 9.09% | 90.91% |
Formulas used
R is the reward multiple: each winner earns +R, each loser costs 1R. Break-even means expectancy equals zero.
Break-even win rate (no costs)
Worked example at 1:2
With round-trip cost C (in R)
Reverse solve
Accuracy note
Results are exact for a fixed reward multiple and fixed risk per trade, and are shown to two decimals. Real trading has variable winners and losers, partial exits and changing costs, so treat the figure as a benchmark. Calculations run in your browser; nothing is sent anywhere. Educational use only, not financial advice.
FAQ
What win rate do I need for 1:2 risk reward?
At 1:2, you need a 33.33% win rate to break even before trading costs (1 ÷ 3). With 0.05R of round-trip costs it becomes 35.00%.
What is the break-even win rate for 1:3 R:R?
25.00% — 1 ÷ (1 + 3). You could lose three out of every four trades and still break even before costs.
How do you calculate break-even win rate?
Divide risk by risk plus reward: 1 ÷ (1 + R) × 100. With costs, use (1 + C) ÷ (1 + R) × 100, where C is round-trip cost expressed in R.
What is the break-even win rate for 1:1?
50.00%. At an even payoff you must win more than half your trades to come out ahead, before costs.
Does commission affect break-even win rate?
Yes. Commission raises the threshold because it is paid on winners and losers alike. It enters the formula as part of C, expressed in R, and the tool shows the exact shift in percentage points.
Does slippage affect risk-reward?
It effectively does: slippage reduces the realised reward and increases the realised loss, so the payoff you trade is smaller than the ratio you planned — and the required win rate goes up accordingly.
Is a 1:2 risk-reward ratio profitable?
Only above the break-even rate. 1:2 by itself is not profitable — it needs a win rate above 33.33% (higher once costs are included) to have positive expectancy.
What win rate do I need for a 2:1 risk-reward ratio?
If by 2:1 you mean risking 2R to make 1R, the break-even win rate is 66.67% — the mirror image of the 1:2 case. This tool expresses ratios as 1:R (reward per 1R of risk), so enter 0.5 for a 2:1 payoff.
Do the calculations run on a server?
No. Everything runs in your browser with plain JavaScript — no login, no database, no market-data feed, nothing transmitted.
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R:R Break-Even Win Rate Calculator — theoretical break-even thresholds only. Not financial advice. All calculations are performed locally in your browser.
